Impact of Industrial Food Production on Nigerian Economic Growth

Abstract

This study examines the impact of food security (FS), employment opportunity (Employ Opp), and total food production (TFP) on economic growth (Eco Grth) in Nigeria from 2006 - 2024 using annual data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Unit root tests indicate that all variables are integrated of order one, while the bounds test reveals no evidence of long-run cointegration among the variables. The ARDL short-run results show that current food insecurity exerts a negative effect on economic growth, whereas previous improvements in food security support growth over time. Employment opportunities and total food production exhibit weak and statistically insignificant short-run effects, reflecting structural rigidities in Nigeria’s labour and agricultural systems. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power with a high adjusted R-squared and no evidence of serial correlation. Overall, the findings suggest that Nigeria’s economic growth responds more to sustained improvements in food security than to immediate changes in employment or food output. The study underscores the need for long-term structural reforms that enhance food system efficiency, strengthen agricultural value chains, and improve labour productivity to support sustained economic expansion.