THE SOURCES OF LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA, 1961-2013: A Growth Accounting Exercise.
Abstract
This study examines the sources of long-run economic growth in Nigeria, 1961-2013 a growth accounting exercise. The study adopted co-integrated and Error- Correction Modeling using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The empirical results review that one period lag of real gross domestic product, acts as the major determinant of long-run economic growth in Nigeria. The coefficient of determination is 59% which is an indication that stock of capital and labor force impact on the long-run economic growth but cannot generate intensive productivity based growth for Nigeria. Total factor productivity remains the source of growth most closely identified with technological gains. Furthermore, the study discovered that, Nigeria has experienced divergent oscillatory growth tragedy due to applicability of extensive growth process. It is therefore, recommended that the Nigerian government should focus more on intensive productivity based growth process this requires commitment to investment in education and the stakeholders in education as a matter of urgency should also be committed to production of quality human capital that are creative, innovative and inventive. This is the core of technological advancement which represents Solow’s residual and this residual is originally taken as the contribution of technical change or technological progress. It has since become known as total factor productivity (TFP) since it encompasses all sources of economic growth apart from those attributable to capital and labor.
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