POPULATION GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH (1981- 2015)
Abstract
This research work investigates the relationship between Agricultural productivity, Population growth and Economic growth of Nigeria for the period, 1981-2015.This study employed ADF Unit root tests to check for stationarity. Johansen Co-integration tests were employed to test for long-run relationships among the dependent variable and the explanatory variables and finally, a Granger Causality test was conducted to identify if a causal relationships exist between the variables. The research reveals that there is a unidirectional causality runs from AGRO to GDP. It also shows that causality runs from AGRO to GEXA and POP to AGRO but not otherwise. There is a bi- directional causality between GEXA and GDP. Equally, causality runs from POP to GDP. Also causality runs from POP to GEXA but not otherwise. The co-integration tests result reveal that there is a long-run relationship among the variables included in the model. The findings imply that agricultural output has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This indicates that agricultural output is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria. Government expenditure on agriculture also has a positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Population growth affects economic growth negatively. The study recommends that efforts should be made to harness the increasing population and make them available into agricultural productivity so as to improve food production and sufficiency in Nigeria. Also, attention should be given to agriculture by increasing government expenditure on agriculture as it plays an important role in economic growth of Nigeria. This could be done through agricultural research programmes and youth orientation into agriculture.
References
Adewole, A. O. (2012). Effect of Population on Economic Development in Nigeria: A Quantitative Assessment. International Journal of Physical and Social Sciences; 2(5): 1- 14
Atanda, A. A., Aminu, S. B,& Alimi, O. Y. (2012). The Role of Population on Economic Growth and Development: Evidence From Developing Countries. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Paper No. 37966
Chukwuma, D,& Uju, E. (2013). Does Agriculture Matter for Economic Development? Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Finance and Economics;1(1): 61-77.
Ebere, C,& Osundina, K. C. (2014). Government Expenditure on Agriculture and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Science and Resources; 9(3):188-194.
Eli H. T., Mohammed, I. D,& Amade P. (2015). Impact of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2010). Journal of Humanities and Social Science; 20(4): 115-123
Ijirshar, V. U. (2015). The Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics; 7(3): 113- 122
Ishola, S. A., Olaleye, S. O., Ajayi, E. O,& Femi, E. (2013). Government Expenditure on Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Humanities and Social Science; 4(8):62-67.
Izuchukwu, O. O. (2011). Analysis of the Contribution of Agricultural Sector on the Nigerian Economic Development. World Review of Business Research; 1(1): 191 – 200
Malthus, T.R. (1803). Essays on the Principles of Population. London,
Bensley Publishers.
Matthew, A,& Mordecai, B. D. (2016). The Impact of Public Agricultural Expenditure on Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1981-2014). Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology: 11(2); 1- 10
Population Commission (2002). Sentinel Survey of the National Population Programme: Baseline Report 2000. Abuja, National Population Commission.
NBS (2016). Statistical News: Labour Force Statistics. No. 476. Abuja: The NBS Publication
NBS (2012). The Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010 Report. Press Briefing by the NBS Nigeria.
Nwosu, C., Dike, A. O,& Okwara, K. K. (2014). The Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Nigeria. The International Journal of Engineering and Science; 3(11):07-18
Odetola, T,& Etumnu, C. (2013). Contribution of Agriculture to Economic Growth in Nigeria. The 18th Annual Conference of the African Econometric Society (AES) Accra, Ghana at the session organized by the Association for the Advancement of African Women Economists (AAAWE), 22nd and 23rd July, 2013.
Olajide, O., Akinlabi, B,&Tijani, A. (2012). Agricultural Resource and Economic Growth in Nigeria.European Scientific Journal; 8(22):103-115.
Onwuka, E. C. (2006). Another Look at the Impact of Nigeria's Growing Population on the Country's Development. African Population Studies; 21(1): 1-18
Oyinbo, O,& Rekwot, G. Z. (2014a). Agricultural Production and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Implication for Rural Poverty Alleviation. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture; 53(3): 207-223
Todaro, P. M,& Smith, C. S. (2006). Economic Development (9th ed.).
Boston, MA: Pearson Addison Wesley.
United Nations Population Division (2009). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. New York, United Nations.
World Bank (1994). Population and Development: Implications for the World Bank. Washington, World Bank.
Yusuf, S. A. (2014). Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth & Development: Nigeria Perspective. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA); Paper No. 55536. Available at http://mpra.ub.uni muenchen.de/55536/
All right reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or any means without prior permission in writing from the copyright owner.
