POPULATION GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH (1981- 2015)
Résumé
This research work investigates the relationship between Agricultural productivity, Population growth and Economic growth of Nigeria for the period, 1981-2015.This study employed ADF Unit root tests to check for stationarity. Johansen Co-integration tests were employed to test for long-run relationships among the dependent variable and the explanatory variables and finally, a Granger Causality test was conducted to identify if a causal relationships exist between the variables. The research reveals that there is a unidirectional causality runs from AGRO to GDP. It also shows that causality runs from AGRO to GEXA and POP to AGRO but not otherwise. There is a bi- directional causality between GEXA and GDP. Equally, causality runs from POP to GDP. Also causality runs from POP to GEXA but not otherwise. The co-integration tests result reveal that there is a long-run relationship among the variables included in the model. The findings imply that agricultural output has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This indicates that agricultural output is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria. Government expenditure on agriculture also has a positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Population growth affects economic growth negatively. The study recommends that efforts should be made to harness the increasing population and make them available into agricultural productivity so as to improve food production and sufficiency in Nigeria. Also, attention should be given to agriculture by increasing government expenditure on agriculture as it plays an important role in economic growth of Nigeria. This could be done through agricultural research programmes and youth orientation into agriculture.
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