EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSAL LINKAGEAMONG POPULATION GROWTH, URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
Causality, Economic Growth, Urbanization, Population, Population Growth
Abstract
This study is an empirical investigation of the causal relationship among population growth, urbanization and economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2013. The main objective is to determine the causal linkage that exists among population growth, urbanization and economic growth in Nigeria for the same period. Secondary annual data obtained from the World Development Indicators data of the World Bank (2014) was used. The data were analyzed using granger causality test adopted as the tool for data analysis. The results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth (GDPG) to population growth (POP) in Nigeria but there is no causal relationship between urbanization (URB) and economic growth (GDPG). This connotes in a nutshell that the only causal linkage found was the one running from economic growth to population growth during the period studied among the variables analyzed (economic growth, population growth and Urbanization rate). Hence, the study recommends among others that population control policy of Nigeria, urban planning laws and regulations as well as National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategies (NEEDS) should be implemented strictly to achieve the goals for which they were set to achieve.
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Afzal, M. (2009). Population Growth and Economic Development in Pakistan. The Open Demography Journal, 2009, (2)1-7.
Ayres, R.U. and Benjamin, W. (2004). Accounting for Growth: the Role of Physical work.
Barro, R. J.(2003). "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries". Annals of Economics and Finance 4(2): 231-274.
Barro, R.J. (1999). Determinants of Economic growth. Implications of the global evidence for Chile.Cuadernos de Economia, Afio 36, No. 107 (1999).
Beall, .J. and Fox, S.(2009). Cities and Development. London: Rutledge.
Ben-Ami, D. (2003). Who's afraid of economic growth? Essay on the contemporary anxiety about economic growth.
Bloom, Canning and Sevilla (2003)."The Debate Over the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth". RAND. RAND URL Retrieved May 9th, 2014 from http://www.rand.org.
Cincotta, R. and Engelman, R.(1997). Economics and Rapid Change: the influence of population Growth. Population Action international 1997.
Dao, M. Q. (2012). Population and economic Growth in developing Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2 (1).
De Long, J. B. & Summers, L. (1991). Equipment investment and economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, CVI 445-502.
Dociu, M. and Dunarintu, A. (2012).The socio-economic impact of urbanization. International Journal of Academic Research in accounting, Finance and Management Sciences. Volume 2, special issue (2012).
Durkheim, E. (1892). The Rules of Sociological Method. Preface to the second edition. Translated by W.D. Hall. United States: The Free Press.
Granger, C.W.J, (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3).
Hartmann, A.M. (2010). Fertility and Economic Growth. How does the fertility rate influence economic growth in developing countries? Unpublished: An M.Sc. in International Economics thesis. University of Aarhus.
Henderson, V.(2000). How urban concentration Affects Economic Growth. Brown University. An unpublished Article.
Horizon, (2009). Population Growth and Food insecurity. What does the future hold? Future issues for development. Pilot issue (2009).
Ignazio, V. (2003).The sources of Economic Growth in the OECD countries. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Jack, M. (2006). Urbanization, Sustainable growth and poverty reduction in Asia. Promoting Growth, Ending Poverty in Asia 2015. Retrieved 11/06/2014 from www.asia2015conference.org.
Kothare, R. (1999). Does India's Population Growth Has a positive Effect on Economic Growth? Social Science (410) 1999.
Kuznet, S. (1967). ―Population and Economic Growth”. Population,Capital and Growth: Selected Essays. New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
Kuznets, S. (I 960)."Population change and Aggregate Output", in universities - National Bureau Committee for economic research, demographic and economic changes in developed countries, Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. "Population and economic growth" Proceedings of the American philosophical society, vol. III, 1967, pp. 170-173.
Latimer, A. & Kulkarni, K. (2008).Population and Economic Development. A Comparative Analysis of Brazil and Mexico. Being a Paper Presentation.
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. & David N. W..( 1992). "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth".
Morgan, L.H.(1877). Ancient society. Chapter III. Ratio of Human progress. USA: University Press Ltd.
Ndambiri, I. K. Ritho, C. Ng'ang'a, S.l. Kubowon, P.C. Mairura, F.C. Nyangweso, P.M. Muiruri, E.M. Cherotwo F.H. (2012). Determinants of economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences Vol. 2, (2): 18-24.
Nsiah-Gyabaah, J. (2000). Urbanisation processes- environmental and Health Effects in Africa. PERN Steering Committee.
Otto, G. (2008). Urbanisation in Nigeria: implications for socio-economic development. An unpublished journal.
Overman, H. and Venables, A. (2005). ―Cities in the Developing World‖. Paper commissioned by Department for International Development (DFID), London. Retrieved June 11th, 2015 from econ.lse.ac.uk/staff/ajv/difcit12.pdf
Pritchett, L. (1996). Population Growth, Factor Accumulation and Productivity. Policy Research Working paper 1567. World Bank. Poverty and Human Resources Division.
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 407-437. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.
Romer, P.M. (1990) ―Endogenous Technological Change‖ Journal of Political Economy 98 (5) S71 – S102.
Rostow, W.W.(1960). The Stages of Economic Growth: a non-Communist Manifesto. London: Cambridge University Press.
Shabu, T.(2010). The relationship between urbanisation and economic development in developing countries. International Journal of Economic Development Research and Investment.1 (2&3) 2010.
Simon, I. (1981). The ultimate Resources, Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. Srinivasan, T. N.(l988)."Population growth and Economic development", Journal of policy modeling 10: (1) 7-28.
Tarver, J.D. (1996). The Demography of Africa. Westport, Connecticut. Praegar.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S. (2006). Economic Development. Ninth Edition. U.S.A. Pearson Publishing Company.
UN (2013).World Population and aging 2013. Economic and social affairs. Department of economic and social affairs, population division. UN, New York. ST/ESA/SER.A/348.
Published
2019-06-13
Section
Articles
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