UNEMPLOYMENT AND MORTALITY RATES IN NIGERIA: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH
Résumé
This study investigated the effect of unemployment rates on mortality rates in Nigeria, using time series data. The methods of data analysis are Johansen Cointegration Test and Fully-Modified Least Square Regression (embedded with distributed lag of unemployment). The result shows that the second lag of unemployment rates have significant and positive effect on mortality rates. A one percent increase in unemployment leads to 0.16% increase in total mortality rates, 0.17% increase in adult male mortality rates and 0.15% increase in adult female mortality rates. In addition, GDP per capita was found to have significant and negative effect on mortality rates. A one percent increase in GDP per capita leads to 0.11% decrease in total mortality rates. 0.12% decrease in adult male mortality rates and 0.09% decrease in adult female mortality rates. It can therefore be concluded that Nigerian economic fluctuation, represented by the unemployment rate and GDP per capita, is a determinant of the mortality rates in the country. It is recommended that policy makers put in place policies that will not only decrease the rate of unemployment but also increase GDPper capita in Nigeria.
Références
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Brenner M., H. (1982), Mooney A. Economic change and sex-specific cardiovascular mortality in Britain 1955–1976. SocSci Med; 16:431–42.
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Brenner M., H. (2000), Estimating the social cost of unemployment in the European Union and the United States. European Commission, Employment and Social Affairs.
Brenner, M., H. (1976), Estimating the social costs of national economic policy: implications for mental and physical health and criminal aggression. Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
Brenner, M., H. (2005), Commentary: Economic growth is the basis of mortality rate decline in the 20th century experience of the United States 1901–2000. International Journal of Epidemiology; 34:1214–1221.
Burgard, S., A, Brand, J., E. & House, J.,S. (2007), Toward a better estimation of the effect of job loss on health. Journal of Health and Social Behaviour. 48(4): 369–384.
Crost B., & Friedson, A., (2015), Recessions and Health Revisited: New Findings for Working Age Adults.
Dickey & Fuller (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427- 431.
Dickey & Fuller (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
Economou, A., Nikolaou, A., & Ioannis T., (2008). Are recessions harmful to health after all? Evidence from the European Union. Journal of Economic Studies, 35(5), 368-384.
Elliason, Marcus & Storrie, D., (2009), Does Job Loss Shorten Life? Journal of Human Resources, 44 (2), 277-302.
Ferreira, F. H. G., & Schady, N. (2009). Aggregate economic shocks, child schooling and child health. World Bank Research Observer, 24(2), 147-181.
Gerdtham, U., & Johannesson, M. (2005). Business cycles and mortality: Results from Swedish microdata. Social Science & Medicine, 60(1), 205-218.
Gerdtham, U. G., & Ruhm, C. J., (2003), Deaths rise in good economic times: evidence from the OECD. IZA Discussion Paper No. 654.
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Granados, T. J. A. (2008), Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan. Demography, 45, 323-343.
Hopkins, S. (2006). Economic stability and health status: evidence from East Asia before and after the 1990s economic crisis. Health Policy, 75(3), 347-357.
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Luo, F., Florence, C., S., Quispe-Agnoli, M., Ouyang, L., & Crosby, A., E. (2011), Impact of business cycles on US suicide rates, 1928–2007. Am J Public Health: 101(6):1139–1146.
Martikainen, P., Makela, P., Koskinen, S., & Valkonen, T. (2001), Income differences in mortality: a register-based follow-up study of three million men and women. Int J Epidemiol; 30:1397–1405.
Martikainen, P., Maki, N., & Jantti, M. (2007), The effects of unemployment on mortality following workplace downsizing and workplace closure: a register-based follow-up study of Finnish men and women during economic boom and recession. American Journal of Epidemiology.
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Maruthappu, M., Bonnie, K., Williams, C., Atun, R.,, & Zeltner, T., (2015), Government health care spending and child mortality. Pediatrics :(135)888- 894.
Miller, Douglas, L., Page, M., Stevens A., F., & Filipski M, (2009), "Why are recessions good for your health?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, 99(2), pages 122-27.
Morin, S., (2009), Business cycles and health: how the level of development of a country affects the relationship between the strength of its economy and the health of its population.
Neumayer, E., (2004), Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany. Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 1037--
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Okun, A. M. (1962)., “Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association, Washington, DC”, American Statistical Association:, 98-104.
Phillips, P., C. & Hansen, B. (1990), Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.
Ruhm C., J. (2000), Are recessions good for your health? Quarterly Journal of Economics. ; 115(2):617–650.
Ruhm, C., (2003), Good times make you sick. Journal of Health Economics, 22(4), 637-658.
Ruhm, C., (2006), Macroeconomic conditions, health and mortality. In A. Jones (Ed.), Elgar companion to health economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Ruhm, C., (2008), Macroeconomic conditions, health and government policy. In R. Schoeni, J. House, G. Kaplan, & H. Pollack (Eds.), Making Americans healthier: Social and economic policy as health policy. New York: Russell Sage.
Singh G., K. & Siahpush M., (2002), Increasing inequalities in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among US adults aged 25–64 years by area socioeconomic status, 1969–1998. Int J Epidemiol; 31:600–13.
Stevens, A. H., Miller, D. L., Page, M. E. & Filipski, M. (2013), The best of times, the worst of times: Understanding Pro-Cyclical Mortality," NBER Working Paper, 17657.
Strully K., W. (2009), Job loss and health in the U.S. labor market. Demography; 46(2):221–246.
Suhrcke, M., & Stuckler, D (2012), Will the recession be bad for our health? It depends. Social Science & Medicine (74) 647-653.
Sullivan, D., & Wachter T. (2009), Job displacement and mortality: an analysis using administrative data. Quarterly Journal of Economics; 124(3): 1265–1306.
Viren, M., (2005), Suicide and Business Cycles: New Empirical Evidence. Applied Economic Letters, 12 (2005): 887-891.
Winkelmann L., &Winkelmann R., (1998), Why are the unemployed so unhappy?
Evidence from panel data. Economica: 65(257):1–15.
Ariizumi, H. & Schirle, T. (2010), Are recessions really good for your health?
Evidence from Canada.
Bartley, M. (1996), Unemployment and health selection. Lancet; 348(9032):904. Bartley, M. Ferrie J. & Glossary (2001), Unemployment, job insecurity, and health. J
Epidemiol Community Health;55 (11):776–781.
Brenner, M.H. (1973), Mental illness and the economy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard U. Press.
Brenner M., H (1975), Trends in alcohol consumption and associated illnesses. Some effects of economic changes. American Journal of Public Health 65(12):1279-1292.
Brenner M., H. (1979), Mortality and the national economy: a review and the experience of England and Wales, 1936–1976. The Lancet 314(8142)568–573.
Brenner M., H. (1982), Mooney A. Economic change and sex-specific cardiovascular mortality in Britain 1955–1976. SocSci Med; 16:431–42.
Brenner M., H. (2002), Unemployment, employment and public health. European Commission, Employment and Social Affairs, 2002.
Brenner M., H. (2000), Estimating the social cost of unemployment in the European Union and the United States. European Commission, Employment and Social Affairs.
Brenner, M., H. (1976), Estimating the social costs of national economic policy: implications for mental and physical health and criminal aggression. Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
Brenner, M., H. (2005), Commentary: Economic growth is the basis of mortality rate decline in the 20th century experience of the United States 1901–2000. International Journal of Epidemiology; 34:1214–1221.
Burgard, S., A, Brand, J., E. & House, J.,S. (2007), Toward a better estimation of the effect of job loss on health. Journal of Health and Social Behaviour. 48(4): 369–384.
Crost B., & Friedson, A., (2015), Recessions and Health Revisited: New Findings for Working Age Adults.
Dickey & Fuller (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427- 431.
Dickey & Fuller (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
Economou, A., Nikolaou, A., & Ioannis T., (2008). Are recessions harmful to health after all? Evidence from the European Union. Journal of Economic Studies, 35(5), 368-384.
Elliason, Marcus & Storrie, D., (2009), Does Job Loss Shorten Life? Journal of Human Resources, 44 (2), 277-302.
Ferreira, F. H. G., & Schady, N. (2009). Aggregate economic shocks, child schooling and child health. World Bank Research Observer, 24(2), 147-181.
Gerdtham, U., & Johannesson, M. (2005). Business cycles and mortality: Results from Swedish microdata. Social Science & Medicine, 60(1), 205-218.
Gerdtham, U. G., & Ruhm, C. J., (2003), Deaths rise in good economic times: evidence from the OECD. IZA Discussion Paper No. 654.
Granados J., A. (2005), Increasing mortality during the expansions of the US economy, 1990–1996. International Journal of Epidemiology; 34:1194–1202.
Granados T., J., A, & Roux D., A., V. (2009), Life and death during the Great Depression. Proc Natl Acad Sci U SA.; 106(41): 17290–17295.
Granados, T. J. A. (2008), Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan. Demography, 45, 323-343.
Hopkins, S. (2006). Economic stability and health status: evidence from East Asia before and after the 1990s economic crisis. Health Policy, 75(3), 347-357.
Hoynes, Hillary, W., Douglas, L., Miller, & Schaller, J., (2012), Who suffers during recession? NBER Working Paper17951.
Ionides E., L., Wang, Z., & Granados J., A. (2013), Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends. Ann Appl Stat. 2013; 7(3):1362–1385.
Johansen, S. (1988) 'Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors', Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 12, pp. 231-54.
Johansen, S. (1991) 'Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models', Econometrica, 59, pp. 1551-80.
Kossoris M., D. (1939), Industrial injuries and the business cycle. Monthly Labor Rev.; 46(3):575–579.
Luo, F., Florence, C., S., Quispe-Agnoli, M., Ouyang, L., & Crosby, A., E. (2011), Impact of business cycles on US suicide rates, 1928–2007. Am J Public Health: 101(6):1139–1146.
Martikainen, P., Makela, P., Koskinen, S., & Valkonen, T. (2001), Income differences in mortality: a register-based follow-up study of three million men and women. Int J Epidemiol; 30:1397–1405.
Martikainen, P., Maki, N., & Jantti, M. (2007), The effects of unemployment on mortality following workplace downsizing and workplace closure: a register-based follow-up study of Finnish men and women during economic boom and recession. American Journal of Epidemiology.
;165(9):1070–1075.
Maruthappu, M., Bonnie, K., Williams, C., Atun, R.,, & Zeltner, T., (2015), Government health care spending and child mortality. Pediatrics :(135)888- 894.
Miller, Douglas, L., Page, M., Stevens A., F., & Filipski M, (2009), "Why are recessions good for your health?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, 99(2), pages 122-27.
Morin, S., (2009), Business cycles and health: how the level of development of a country affects the relationship between the strength of its economy and the health of its population.
Neumayer, E., (2004), Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany. Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 1037--
-1047.
Okun, A. M. (1962)., “Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association, Washington, DC”, American Statistical Association:, 98-104.
Phillips, P., C. & Hansen, B. (1990), Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.
Ruhm C., J. (2000), Are recessions good for your health? Quarterly Journal of Economics. ; 115(2):617–650.
Ruhm, C., (2003), Good times make you sick. Journal of Health Economics, 22(4), 637-658.
Ruhm, C., (2006), Macroeconomic conditions, health and mortality. In A. Jones (Ed.), Elgar companion to health economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Ruhm, C., (2008), Macroeconomic conditions, health and government policy. In R. Schoeni, J. House, G. Kaplan, & H. Pollack (Eds.), Making Americans healthier: Social and economic policy as health policy. New York: Russell Sage.
Singh G., K. & Siahpush M., (2002), Increasing inequalities in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among US adults aged 25–64 years by area socioeconomic status, 1969–1998. Int J Epidemiol; 31:600–13.
Stevens, A. H., Miller, D. L., Page, M. E. & Filipski, M. (2013), The best of times, the worst of times: Understanding Pro-Cyclical Mortality," NBER Working Paper, 17657.
Strully K., W. (2009), Job loss and health in the U.S. labor market. Demography; 46(2):221–246.
Suhrcke, M., & Stuckler, D (2012), Will the recession be bad for our health? It depends. Social Science & Medicine (74) 647-653.
Sullivan, D., & Wachter T. (2009), Job displacement and mortality: an analysis using administrative data. Quarterly Journal of Economics; 124(3): 1265–1306.
Viren, M., (2005), Suicide and Business Cycles: New Empirical Evidence. Applied Economic Letters, 12 (2005): 887-891.
Winkelmann L., &Winkelmann R., (1998), Why are the unemployed so unhappy?
Evidence from panel data. Economica: 65(257):1–15.
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2019-06-26
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